Research

My research lies at the intersection of health economics, regional and urban economics, and public policy. I investigate how health disparities, access to care, and well-being policies unfold across space and socioeconomic lines. I am particularly interested in the heterogeneous effects of public programs and structural barriers that disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, including those in rural areas and communities facing increased challenges due to the shift to online services and the effects of automation. My work emphasizes how place and policy interact to shape program participation, labor market outcomes, and health.

See my Google Scholar profile for a full list of publications and citations.

Job Market Paper

The Impact of SSA Field Office Closures on Disability Program Participation

This paper estimates the impact of Social Security Administration (SSA) field office closures on participation in federal disability benefit programs. I exploit the uniform, nationwide closure of over 1,200 SSA field offices during the COVID-19 lockdown period as a natural experiment. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I compare changes in the number of newly enrolled disabled beneficiaries across ZIP codes with and without a local SSA office. The results show that, on average, closures reduced the number of new disability beneficiaries by 2.3%. The effects are significantly larger in non-metropolitan areas (-9.4%) and in communities with low internet access (-3.5%), suggesting that limited digital infrastructure exacerbated the barriers imposed by the loss of in-person services. These findings provide evidence that in-person administrative access plays a vital role in facilitating disability program enrollment, particularly for vulnerable and digitally underserved populations.

Publications

  • Assessing the Local Cost of Urban Climate Resilience: An Analysis of the NYC Financial District and Seaport Climate Resilience (FiDi) Master Plan, (2025), with Daniel Centuriao.
    Papers in Regional Science, 104(5), 100110. Link

  • Regional Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns and Mitigation Effects of Stimulus Checks and Unemployment Insurance, , (2025), with Daniel Centuriao, Amir Ferreira Neto, and Fernando Perobelli.
    Forthcoming, Economic Analysis and Policy. Link

  • Identification and Analysis of the Evolution of Local Productive Arrangements, (2021), with Daniel Centuriao and Luiz Cypriano.
    Journal of Regional Analysis & Policy, 51(2), 49–66. Link

Other Publications: click to view full list

2021

  1. Welter, C., Paetzhold, T., Centuriao, D. & Schneider, M. (2021). The heterodox stabilization plans: main effects for the Brazilian economy in the period from 1985 to 1989. Brazilian Journal of Development, 7(3), 23014–23036.

  2. Frainer, D., Welter, C. & Centuriao, D. (2021). Comparison between cattle complexes. Agricultural Policy Journal, 30(2), 8.

2020

  1. Centuriao, D., Welter, C. & Abrita, M. (2020). Business challenges and policy suggestions in face of the Covid-19 pandemic. A Economia em Revista-AERE, 28(1), 54–65.

  2. Welter, C., Batista, A., Centuriao, D. & Rippel, R. (2020). Economic growth in Western Parana: an analysis based on regional indicators. Parana Development Journal, 41(138), .

  3. Centuriao, D., Welter, C. & Frainer, D. (2020). Development of the municipalities in Mato Grosso do Sul: an analysis from a synthetic multidimensional indicator. Brazilian Journal of the Environment, 8(4), .

  4. Welter, C. & Centuriao, D. (2020). Economic growth in Mato Grosso do Sul: polarization and heterogeneity. GEOFRONTER, 6, .

  5. Almeida Gabriel, F., Centuriao, D., Welter, C. & Silva, G. (2020). Governance Structures and Transaction Attributes in the Ribas do Rio Pardo (MS) Agroindustrial Forest Complex. REDES. Regional Development Journal, 25(2), 762–781.

Working Papers

  • Is Obesity Affected by Urban Sprawl? Evidence from Brazil, with Jane Ruseski.

  • Aggregation Bias and Input-Output Regionalization: Detail or Accuracy?
    Regional Research Institute Working Paper, with Randall Jackson. Link

Work in Progress

  • Maternal Responses to Immunization, Microcephaly, and Infant Mortality due to the Zika Epidemic (dissertation chapter).
  • Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) Adoption After Medicaid Insurance Coverage Expansion, with Daniel Grossman and Amanda Gaulke (dissertation chapter).